28th October 2013: Technology Assessment and Forecasting

Hello!

Brief Overview/Summary:

• We talked about preparing for the future. Preparing for the future is akin to prepare for winter, it is inevitable, the more aware we are, the more prepared we will be.
• People are moving from rural to urban places to live in. What are some implications of this movement? There will be an increase in healthcare, electricity, safety and security. Some companies are aiming to capitalize on the increase in demand for such services or products. One such company would be Siemens.

Interesting Observations and Ideas:

1. One interesting thing that I picked up during class today was that one million robots will soon replace 1 million human jobs at Foxconn China (J.Hill, 2012). I just did a quick google search and read up on the news. What are some of the implications that comes with replacing 1 million jobs? This could lead to a major structural unemployment occurring in China and with it socio-economic problems. Personally, I feel that the government in China should not allow Foxconn to bring in such technology yet*. If Foxconn experiences success with the automation of its factory in China, other factories might follow suit. What will happen is that China will be left with a high unemployment rate while their GDP might still grow through exports and investments, their population will experience a drop in their income and reduce their consumption of goods. The social problems that arises with massive unemployments could be social unrest, riots, increase in crime rates, stress levels. This would affect China's ability to attract investments into the country. As such, there is a need to assess this form of technology, robots replacing human jobs as the bulk of China's population works in factories, in order for China to continue growing.
2. Difference between technology forecasting and technology foresight. Technology forecasting: Looking at a variety of different technology and decide where they will eventually lead to. Technology foresight: Looking at one specific technology and look at its impact and implications.
3. Not all technologies are worth investing into. Developing and developed countries have different agendas and they have to assess each technology in terms of short run and long run benefits. However, that being said, developing countries can invest in future technologies to build up their infrastructure to attract more investments and create jobs. Sometimes new technology can help you to leapfrog over technologies. For example Bangalore, they decided to invest in wireless technology, this allowed them to skip the hassle of having tons of wire which could pose as a potential electrical hazard.

Key Takeaways:

1. Not every technology is worth investing into. Investor agenda differs for everybody. You could be a private investor looking for short term monetary gains or the government looking out for your people. As such, we have to engage in technology assessment and decide which technology is worth investing and looking into. I think Singapore should consider investing into green technology, start creating a green Singapore, we can see such activities happening with our Sports Hub going green with new solar panels (Ee, 2013).
2. What are some of the mega trends explored in our class today?
   1. Managing volatility and dislocation: Job/skills insecurities.
   2. Rise of the East: As seen in the recent GE20 summit
   3. Ethics in business
   4. Pressure on mother Earth
   5. Issue of connectivity of technology: online culture

Issues for further discussions:

• What are some technologies that developing countries should be looking into. How should they plan their telecommunication lines? Go wireless or conventional wiring? How should they plan their public transport system? High speed trains or conventional subways? How should they plan their school? Digital media or conventional books? All these are questions that require an in-depth analysis of individual technology and how they can benefit the country.

Rating for lesson:

• 8/10. Informative and interesting lecture.

References:

Ee, D. (2013). Sports Hub goes green with solar panels at new National Stadium. Straits Time. Retrieved from: http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/sports-hub-goes-green-solar-panels-new-national-stadium-20131016

J.Hill, D. (2012). 1 million robots to replace 1 million human jobs at Foxconn? First robots have arrived. Retrieved from: http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/12/1-million-robots-to-replace-1-million-human-jobs-at-foxconn-first-robots-have-arrived/

Link back to the masterblog: http://twcshahi13.blogspot.sg/

My favourite TWC blog to read and check if i've missed out anything would be Sylvestor's blog: http://twcsylvesteryeo2013.blogspot.sg/

Cheers!